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ADVENTURES IN COMPUTER MODELING

April 18, 2020 By: bob Category: Humor, In the News, Something To Think About

photo: Fusion.net

I spent more than 17 years, and quasi-retired from a company that was in the computer data processing and billing business as well as systems design and fabrication.

My own positions were in administration and management and not technical “stuff” but I spent hundreds, if not thousands of hours with technical people including programmers and engineers.

I remember one technical manager in particular that used to “remind” me over and over that everyone seems to think “Computers are smart but actually they are stupid – they can just process data very, very fast.”

Or, as was often mentioned as a “great truth” by countless programmers and technicians that we must never forget: “Garbage In – Garbage Out”. Computer systems can only produce results based on the the data that is input into them. In other words, if you provide the computer program with incomplete or inaccurate data they will produce faulty or misleading results.

For example, early in the current Coronavirus Pandemic, “modeling” was predicting United States potential fatalities from the virus could run 2.2 million by August of this year, this was later revised to 1.4 million and still later to maybe 140 thousand and it now appears the actual number with likely come in well below that number. That is a huge differential in predictions and is why the task force kept reiterating that they needed accurate data for “modeling”.

These experts are not stupid or inept, these are educated, intelligent and dedicated people. Apparently the first “models” were based on input data that nothing would be done to mitigate the spread of the virus. As mitigation factors were input, the modeling predictions changed.

(Definition of mitigate: Spreading the impact of possible contamination over a longer period of time to avoid overwhelming hospitals by social distancing, closing of non-essential businesses and instituting modified house arrest for citizenry.)

My real fear of relying on computer modeling is that it can, and has been abused by those with an agenda to make “junk science” predictions on subjects from global famine to global freezing to climate change prognostications that have a history of causing unnecessary fear and panic only to be ultimately proven false.

By “picking and choosing” what data fits your agenda and you want to use in your computer modeling, you can skew the computer output to fit your goals. This is not true science, it is an example of “Garbage in – Garbage out”.

Politicians use Pollsters to do something similar by carefully wording questions and then polling segments of the population likely to produce their desired results. “Garbage in – Garbage out”.

In 1966 former Vice President Al Gore’s “modeling” and his book (An Inconvenient Truth) predicted global warming unless immediate and drastic action was taken within a decade. He predicted, among other things, rising sea levels and worldwide massive flooding along with Polar Bear Extinction (Polar Bear populations have actually increased) and the South Sahara drying up among other dire warnings. None of these things happened. Despite his predictions of rising sea levels, the former Vice President and author bought himself a beachfront home.

In his book “The Population Bomb”, by Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich, his modeling predicted worldwide famine in the 70’s and 80’s due to overpopulation. The worldwide famine never occurred but caused near panic in many quarters of academia.

In the 1970’s more “modeling” led scientists to predict an imminent new “ice age”, a vision of which can be seen in the 2004 movie “The Day After Tomorrow” which was based on this prediction. It never happened.

More recently, a “Progressive Green New Deal” movement within our own country predicted, based on their own accepted “modeling” in 2019 that our planet only had 12 years left for human survival unless we immediately adopt their agenda, part of which is to abruptly abandon all use of “fossil” fuels (oil and natural gas) and switch to only solar and wind power on a crisis basis. This is “junk” science on steroids but they have caused tremendous fear and panic, especially on our young and vulnerable. In my opinion this is fear mongering on a criminal level. The climate is not going to make the earth uninhabitable by humans within the next, now 11 years and there is no definitive scientific proof to the fact. Only predictions based on computer “modeling” from often skewed, cherry picked questionable data.

You will forgive me if I do not trust “modeling”. Good people can be led far from the truth by inaccurate, faulty or fraudulent data. There are too many “experts” out there with an agenda looking for a way to further that agenda with “modeling” data.

To close on a more humorous note. Many of these experts are telling us that we will need to permanently change our behavior in the future and practice social distancing everywhere and at every age. I want to be a “fly on the wall” of a third grade classroom and watch all the the 8-9 year old’s maintain, at all times, a six foot spacing in the classroom, cafeteria and playground. I pity the teachers!

Bob Bandy – April 2020

America’s Best Defense

April 14, 2020 By: bob Category: In the News, Something To Think About

photo – Google

I must confess, like many others I have come to fear a possible intentional viral attack from one of America’s enemies similar to the apparently unintentional infestation we have suffered from the Coronavirus COVID-19.

An adversary would not have to have its army invade, drop a bomb or even fire a single shot. In the future an enemy would simply have to acquire or mutate a virus (virus’s mutate easily), especially one that is contagious and attacks the upper respiratory system.

They could then infect “volunteers” with the virus, infiltrate them through our porous borders, especially into Sanctuary Cities and States, where no questions or paperwork is required.

Once here, these infiltrators could travel cross country by bus or in caravans of rental cars to major centers of population where folks are often in close contact with each other and then make sure they sneeze or cough on as many of our citizens as possible. Then, let nature do its part. In this way an enemy could again bring America to its economic knees. A scary thought.

For now our Government has imposed a well intended sort of “house arrest” that has left most of us to watch 24/7 marathon tabloid television “news” of the Coronavirus infestation and the crash of our economy.

Mostly unspoken, but hanging like a cloud is the likely eventual inflation and devaluation of our currency through multi-Trillion Dollar bailouts with fiat paper money. Our Government has little option to do anything else. The economy must be enabled to function again.

On a more positive note, I recently remembered something from past readings that is perhaps our Country’s best defense. I did a bit of research and found several varieties of the phrase I was looking for. Perhaps the following is the simplest and comes right to the point.

On December 13, 1955 a British Consul stated, in part: “Economically speaking, every time America sneezes, the rest of the world has pneumonia”.

The United States is the undisputed leader in the worlds economy. The U.S. Dollar is the standard currency. Not the Chinese Yuan, not the Euro, not the Yen, not the Rouble or any other currency.

Without the stabilizing influence of the U.S. market and dollar, the Chinese and many other economies would suffer greatly and perhaps even collapse leading the world into an economic and collateral social pandemic. Even before the current crisis, there were many governments in the world that were on the ragged edge of economic bankruptcy. The U.S. has been a leader in helping keep them financially viable at even a minimal level.

Aside from a few “lunatic fringe governments” and radical groups like ISIS and their ilk, that would like to hurt us just because they hate us, what government would seriously consider “crashing” the U.S. economy? For virtually all of them, it would be a form of “economic suicide” to attack us. I think this makes such an attack much less likely.

I believe a strong, robust U.S. economy is America’s best defense against an intentional viral Pandemic by a foreign enemy.

Something to think about.

Bob Bandy – April 2020

9-11 Remembered – A New Challenge

April 06, 2020 By: bob Category: Culture, In the News, Something To Think About

SOCIAL DISTANCING
photo: timesnownews.com


The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted virtually everyone’s life, some in more ways than others, but all of us.

In one positive way I am reminded of the period following the attack on 9-11-01.

If any good came from the terror and tragedy of that horrible day it was that we experienced a coming together in America that was unique in my adult lifetime.

In the face of a common enemy we found a common purpose and good.

We united as a nation, as a people and as Americans. Color did not matter. Social standing lost it’s importance. Politics was forgotten – at least for a time. Neighbors joined with neighbors. There was an air of courtesy and acceptance of each other despite whatever differences we might of had before the event.

As Americans we joined hands and hearts in sorrow and in pride and celebrated our common love of country and each other.

In a similar way I have sensed some measure of that time in the current test being presented by a different adversary – this Coranavirus COVID-19.

Despite the shortages at our local supermarkets and the need, even requirement for social distancing, I am noticing more courtesy, patience and even friendly smiles among shoppers.

For the most part, we as individuals, seem to have put political disagreement and name calling on the shelf, at least for now. Many national political leaders who are generally bitter foes have demonstrated a softening of tone and been able to co-operate for the general benefit of all . Even if temporary, it’s a relief from the seeming constant drumbeat of political infighting we have come to expect. A welcome relief with perhaps just a glimmer of hope for the future.

In our area we have our own social Neighborhood Network where we communicate and share with folks in our immediate area. (I am told the Nextdoor.com app is available nationwide). What I am seeing happen makes me proud and has strengthened my faith in others. I see postings offering help to those in need. Offers to run an errand for a shut-in, help with a chore, shopping, even a package of toilet paper at a time when the stores are all completely out.

I don’t see people offering to help if you are a fellow Democrat or a fellow Republican or a fellow whatever. Just neighbors willing to help neighbors without conditions. It is a wonderful thing and makes me proud to be one of those neighbors.

This Virus “thing” shows no favorites and my greatest wish is that we could all carry on indefinitely this common goodwill feeling after this virus is finally controlled or better, history.

If you have the same desire, please share that feeling with others. I believe we would all be richer as a people if we did so.

Bob Bandy – April 2020

THE GREAT GREEN RACE II

March 28, 2020 By: bob Category: Humor

I first published this humor article a year ago under a different title. It was popular and copies often requested. Recent events in the news reminded me of it. Now is a time I think we could all use something to smile about. It is intended in good humor. We all need to laugh at ourselves from time to time. I have slightly edited it. Enjoy!

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Rule Number One – Smile – You can’t take these folks too seriously or it will make you crazy. Instead of getting mad it is better to keep our sense of humor and have some fun.

Let’s propose to the “Progressive Green New Deal” folks that they promote their ideas via sponsorship of a new Reality Show on television.  We could call it “Survivor Plus” and the challenge the contestants face will be called:  “The Great Green Race II”.

The plan: A race across the state of Texas for the contestants in Solar Powered Cars (similar to the one above).

The race will be from the West Texas town of  El Paso to the East Texas town of Beaumont.  Distance: 830 miles through the heart of Texas.

Each car will be decorated with Bumper Stickers and signs that say things like:  NO MORE NRA – HILLARY IN 2020 – OUTLAW ALL GUNS – SHUT DOWN ALL OIL WELLS – NO MORE CATTLE.

First contestant to reach Beaumont, Texas alive wins a free lunch with Al Gore.

Second place winner will get two lunches with all Gore.

Any remaining surviving contestants that finish the race will win a three day stay at Al Gore’s Environmentally Friendly 10,070 square foot mansion/estate/home  sharing quarters with Congresswoman and Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Congressman Adam Schiff and Congressman Jerry Nadler.  Sounds like a great time doesn’t it? 

Enjoy a tour of Al Gore’s reconstructed library.  His old library was destroyed in a fire and all three of his books burned, including one he had not finished coloring yet.

Have your mind stimulated at a third grade math class taught by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes.

Laugh yourself silly at the “Battle of Wits” between Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler.  Spirited intellectual combat between three intellectually unarmed combatants.

Indulge yourself at the Environment Friendly Bar-B-Que featuring cow-flatulent-free Tofu Burgers. Yum, Yum!

Just for entering the race, all contestants will receive an Al Gore autographed 8 x 10 glossy color photograph of his Environmentally Friendly private jet.

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This was written for fun and a smile.  Some of your friends and neighbors might enjoy this.  Many folks who call themselves “Progressives” demonstrate little to no sense of humor.  Share accordingly.

Bob Bandy – March 2020

CALIFORNIA SHELL GAME

March 15, 2020 By: bob Category: In the News, Something To Think About

image: farmwars.info

Listening to the radio the other day while I was working, I heard a purported spokesperson for California Government claim that the “Administration” came to the conclusion that our recent Proposition 13 (proposed property tax increase) Bill failed in our Primary Election last month because California voters figured that since the State had a balanced budget, even a budget surplus, the voters felt no further tax increase was needed to assist the States Schools.

Balanced budget? Surplus? California plays a “Shell Game” with tax revenues. Read on.

Choking back a “gag reflex” I remembered all the enraged voters of both parties who felt totally betrayed by previous Gasoline Tax Increases (California has the highest gasoline taxes in the nation) which had been presented by our State Government as a tax that was promised to be used only to repair our roads and not for any other purpose. “Pinky Swear Promise”.

” Now that Gov. Jerry Brown has signed into law billions of dollars in higher fuel taxes and vehicle fees, the state will have an estimated $52 billion more money to help cover the state’s transportation needs for the next decade.” Sacramento Bee April 28, 2017

According to published reports California consumes about 43,835,616 gallons of gasoline a day and each gallon is taxed by the State of California at a rate of 46.7 cents a gallon. Using a calculator this would give California a daily gasoline tax income of $20,471,232. That’s over twenty million dollars each and every day, over six hundred million dollars a month in gas tax income. source: Sacramento Bee and multiple online federal and state agency reports.

It did not take California long to play the old “Hide the Pea in the Shell Con Game” before they “redirected” (stole) much/most of the tax increase to other “pet projects” like Climate Change research. In the meantime our roads are among the poorest in the nation with potholes shaking our cars to pieces.

To say that California has a Balanced Budget with a substantial Budget Surplus is a lie of the worst sort concocted out of “smoke and mirrors” accounting. Or if you prefer: Creative Accounting 101.

California has a 1.5 Trillion Dollar State and local debt, …..much of it in UNFUNDED (my emphasis) Pension Liability. January 2019 California Policy Center.org

Private employers are required by Federal Law – ERISA (the Employee Retirement Income Security Act) – to have fully funded (money in the bank) employee retirement programs.

The State of California, like the Social Security Administration, uses the Ponzi Scheme method of depending on future revenues – use hoped for future suckers money to pay the previous suckers “ala Bernie Madoff” plan – to cover the previously collected (and spent) “trust account” money through Shell Game tax increases and “reallocation” from other programs.

Regular readers of my columns, and those that note my brief biographical data in the right margin will remember that: I am against racism in any of its forms, oppose violence, abhor hypocrisy and especially despise being lied to.

Government please stop the “Pea Shell Shuffling” and quit lying to us.

Bob Bandy – March 2020

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN?

March 08, 2020 By: bob Category: Humor, Something To Think About

photo: Geico Insurance
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See the complete:
“Pinocchio Parking Ticket” Commercial on youtube.com

Ladies and Gentlemen. Forgive me but I cannot see this commercial without thinking of it as a preview of a Joe Biden Presidency.

Right now it seems more likely than not that he will win the nomination of his party to run in the upcoming Presidential election as, once again the Party has maneuvered Bernie Sanders out of the home stretch lap.

It also leaves me with several thoughts and questions.

For one thing, who would be his Vice President? This is a real and very important question. Our friend Joe could be no more than a figurehead stand-in considering his rapidly declining mental acumen. It seems there is little likelihood of him serving out a full term before he is sequestered in a White House basement dressed in his Pinocchio Jammies with a cup of warm cocoa laced with his medicine.

Whoever his Vice President is will have to be someone satisfied with being the stand-in puppet for the real powers that be in the party.

“Old Joe”, as he is frequently called by his friends and supporters, seems to be slipping away from us rapidly. He often cannot remember what state he is in, what office he is running for, tell the difference between his wife and his sister, etc. etc. One can’t help but wonder if his mind and memory have perhaps exceeded their “best if used by date”.

In addition, his recollection of history is often confused. Listening to him he seems to have been a major player in so many pieces of history. Was he really with Teddy Roosevelt at the Battle of San Juan Hill? How about his driving of the Golden Spike at Promontory Point, Utah for the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad? He has so many memories of historic events in which he was a major player that it is really hard to remember them all.

Another question. Who would really be “pulling the strings” of a Biden Puppet Presidency. I suspect the Democratic Party has already lined up a consortium. Probably headed by the Clinton Crime Syndicate and the Obama Legacy Foundation coupled with other “Power Brokers” within the “Deep State”. Maybe his old nemesis “Corn Pop” could serve on the advisory team. Are you scared yet?

Do the names George Soros, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg with all their power, wealth and governmental influence ring a bell? I am sure they would be glad to help finance a Biden campaign to elect “Old Joe” and then serve on the “Puppet Master” team. Now are you scared?

Now that I have planted this seed, your challenge is to watch these Geico Pinocchio commercials in the future without seeing Joe Biden’s face on Pinocchio. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to dare to share this bit of humor with your family, friends and neighbors.

Just for fun!

Bob Bandy – March 2020